The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been calling for years for urgent action to avoid catastrophic environmental breakdown with the world on course this century for a disastrous +3°C warming above pre-industrial temperatures (1850-1900). Unprecedented changes are needed by 2030 to keep to +1.5°C (ambitious and politically challenging) else risk the planet’s liveability (IPCC, 2018) - unsurprising given worldwide effects already felt.

(We are a signatory of the Glasgow Declaration on Climate Action in Tourism and Tourism Declares Climate Emergency, working to decabonise the tourism sector. Travellers can also make lower impact choices to limit personal footprints: Top 10 Tips on How to Reduce Your Carbon Impact In Travel - and Should You Carbon Offset?).

Scientific advice suggests current targets still put the world on track for +3.2°C of warming on pre-industrial levels by 2100, with much deeper cuts needed to bridge the gap between emissions targets set in the 2015 Paris Agreement and the 3 times the amount now required. Emissions have risen 4% since the Paris Accord, now 50% higher than in 1990: the climate crisis is occurring much faster than previously anticipated and countries are failing to keep pace with spending required to adapt to its effects, especially with Covid pandemic priorities (UN, 2020).

To limit warming to 1.5°C, global net CO2 emissions must drop by more than 7% a year 2020 to 2030 to heed scientific advice and reach net zero around 2050. Concerted action is urgently needed to stem climate change and strengthen resilience to pervasive and increasing climate-related hazards the world is already witnessing, such as drought, bushfires, destruction and death of people and species.

Sustainable development goal SDG 13: Climate action for climate change

Sustainable development goal SDG 13: Climate action for climate change

Thus Goal 13 of the UN 17 Global Goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is:

SDG #13 “Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts”

Human-impact global warming is already at least 1.1°C (2016, 2019) warmer than pre-industrial levels. Whilst the difference from 1.5°C to 2°C may not sound like much, it makes a huge difference: 10cm in sea levels for starters, meaning impacts for 10 million people, species and habitats exposed to risks of flooding from rising seas. At 1.5°C, 14% of the population will be exposed to heatwaves every 5 years versus 37% at 2°C, with its associated issues such as ocean acidity; At 1.5°C, 50% less population will be exposed to water stress than at 2°C, with the food scarcity and climate-poverty that brings, with vital pollinating insects twice as likely to lose half their habitat.

Even if we succeed in limiting warming to 1.5°C, this would not be a ‘safe’ level of warming for the world… Therefore we must focus on cutting global emissions to net zero as soon as possible. We know the transition to a net zero economy is the growth story of the 21st century.
— Bob Ward, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at the London School of Economics.

The World Economic Forum’s global risk assessment, published January 2020 for the next decade, found the top five dangers were all environmental, including extreme weather, failure to prepare for climate change and the destruction of the natural world.

Climate change is affecting every country on every continent, the poorest and vulnerable the most, with rising temperatures, sea and extreme weather events (91% climate related) affecting lives and livelihoods.

We are currently way off track to meeting either the 1.5°C or 2°C targets that the Paris Agreement calls for.
— Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary General, March 2020

Progress on Sustainable Development Goal 13 Climate Change

While instrumental temperature records stretch back to 1850, data from ice cores indicate that today’s temperatures were last seen at least 100,000 years ago.

  • Crucial climate action work needs to be taken forward in areas including finance, the transparency of climate action, forests and agriculture, technology, capacity building, loss and damage, indigenous peoples, cities, oceans and gender.

  • For the November 2021 COP26 conference in Glasgow, UK (delayed a year due to Covid) all countries have committed to submit new and updated national climate action plans.

  • March 2020: 189 parties had ratified the Paris Agreement, 186 parties (185 countries plus the EU ) had communicated their first Nationally Determined Contributions to the UNFCCC; 3 parties had communicated second NDCs.

  • 2019: At least 120 of the 153 developing countries had undertaken activities to formulate and implement National adaptation plans (funding provided by the Green Climate Fund and the Least Developed Countries Fund).

  • January 2020: the hottest on record globally, with Europe seeing its hottest winter to date.

  • 2019: The highest levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases recorded in the atmosphere.

  • 2019: the second warmest year on record, and in the seas where 90% of the heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions is absorbed.

  • 2018: 39 million people affected by natural disasters including flood, wildfire, hurricane and drought, exacerbated by climate change.

  • 2016: the second lowest extent of global sea ice on record - 4.14 million square kilometres (UN Stats).

  • The 2010’s: the hottest decade since records began 150 ago.

  • 9/10 warmest Julys on record have occurred during the 21st century since 2005, only including 1998 from the 20th century.

  • The 20 warmest years on record have all occurred in the past 22 years, with the years from 2015-2019 making up the top five (WMO).

  • 2000–2018: Global greenhouse gas emissions of developed countries and economies in transition declined 6.5% however those of developing countries increased 43.2% 2000 to 2013, largely due to increased industrialization and enhanced economic output/GDP.

  • 1998-2017: direct economic losses from climate-related and geophysical disasters estimated at almost $3 trillion, claiming an estimated 1.3 million lives and left 4.4 billion injured.

  • 85 countries (only 40%) have national disaster risk reduction strategies aligned to some extent to the Sendai Framework, which works with the 2030 Agenda, including the Paris Agreement, for sustainable development and the SDGs.

  • +20cm: sea level rise since 1880, projected to rise 30-122cm by 2100 (UNDP, 2020).

    Investments in climate activities across sectors continued to be surpassed by those related to fossil fuels in the energy sector

  • US$26 trillion: economic benefits by 2030 that could be triggered by bold action.

  • 18 million more jobs could be created in sustainable energy sector alone.

The Impact of Covid on SDG 13 Climate Change

  • Despite lockdown of industry and transport, a peak 17% drop in emissions only marginally slowed the rise in greenhouse gas concentrations.

  • 6%: the predicted drop of emissions for 2020, still short of the annual 7.6% required to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

  • The pandemic disrupted economic activity and business as usual worldwide, but also the sustainability agenda.

  • The crisis is perhaps a taste of what’s the come with the climate crisis, but also an opportunity for recovery plans to build back better.

  • A profound, systemic shift to a more sustainable economy that is clean, green, healthy, safe, inclusive and more resilient and can work for people and planet is possible, with investment accelerating decarbonisation, sustainable solutions, green economy and jobs.

What does it mean for the planet and how can tourism possibly help?
(You might also like to read our blog Top 10 Tips on How To Reduce Your Carbon Footprint in Travel (and should you offset?)

Challenges of SDG13, Climate Change

What is Climate Change?

By NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies - http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=24363898

Energy received from the Sun and lost to space determines the Earth’s equilibrium temperature and climate; energy distributed around the globe, such as by winds and ocean currents, affects climates of different regions.

Climate change refers to statistical difference in long-term weather conditions’ patterns. Most often, it refers to man-made (‘anthropogenic’) climate change, ‘global warming’: ongoing temperature rises scientifically-proven since the 1950s, with the likely dominant cause human activity rather than any of the Earth’s natural processes. (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013).

The IPCC was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to assess scientific and socio-economic information concerning climate change, its potential effects and options for adaptation and mitigation.

What are Greenhouse Gases?

Human activity emits greenhouse gases (water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone), so-called as these gases absorb and emit radiation, creating a ‘greenhouse effect’ of keeping and increasing the energy in the Earth’s atmosphere.

Greenhouse gases have risen since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (1740s/50s), from human activities, creating an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, largely from burning fossil fuels (mostly coal, oil and natural gas), and from deforestation, soil erosion and animal agriculture.

  • Intensifying environmental and climate threats means that Malawi deforestation rates at 2.8% annually are the highest in southern Africa, exacerbating food and water insecurity.

Greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for a long time as the climate system has a large ‘inertia’ delay, slowness or resistance between a change taking place and its results being felt: ‘Committed warming ’ effects may persist beyond emissions for not only decades or centuries, but for thousands of years. Presently, the committed warming greenhouse gases will likely warm Earth beyond the limits in Paris agreement, perhaps over 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Even if we stabilize the global climate at the 1.5-degree threshold, extreme impacts will continue to increase in frequency for up to 100 years afterwards.

Greenhouse gas emissions are now at their highest levels in history. But, incredibly just 100 companies - including big fossil fuel companies - are responsible for 71% of all greenhouse gas emissions since 1988, and just 20 firms behind one third of all CO2 and methane emissions since 1965. This should place a large responsibility on the companies, who have known the impacts for decades, but they have avoided the ‘polluter pays’ principles, and shifted blame to the consumer.

What are the impacts?

Climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions is already having serious consequences.

Weather: Warming global temperatures, changing precipitation, increased humidity and more frequent extreme El Nino and other weather events such as heat waves, droughts, heavy rainfall with floods and heavy snowfall are causing environments to change, and will occur more often and with greater intensity as long as humans continue increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Environment: Glaciers, sea ice and carbon-containing permafrost are melting, letting out methane, a greenhouse gas 34 times more potent than carbon dioxide; permanent drought is leading to greater desertification and land degradation; the oceans are warming, sea levels rising and populated areas abandoned. Parts of the Earth will likely become close to uninhabitable, or horrifically inhospitable.

Madagascar Sainte Luce Boys

Madagascar Sainte Luce Boys

Agriculture: Extreme weather accounts for about 40% of the fluctuations in annual wheat yields, a crop which supplies roughly 20% of all dietary calories worldwide, and 50% yield variability on corn (Huffington Post). Whilst for every degree that the planet warms up, food production falls by 10 - 15%. If it’s 5°C warmer by 2100, there will be 50% less food for a world population that has doubled in size. And as food production drops and demand increases, prices will go up: Global warming has already driven up the cost of food by as much as 20% over the past few decades.

Biodiversity: Then there’s species extinctions, and ocean acidification: UNESCO’s first global scientific assessment of climate change impacts on World Heritage coral reefs, such as The Great Barrier Reef in Australia, warmer waters and coral bleaching is recognised as a global problem requiring global, not local, solutions.

Madagascar is one of the top three countries considered most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with frequent and severe erratic weather patterns with droughts and cyclones which impact heavily on the Malagasy people. Most work in subsistence agriculture: two thirds live in rural areas, with limited education, secure food sources, adequate nourishment, water and sanitation, leading to disease and high child mortality and disease.

People: Average annual temperatures of 6°C to 28°C are ideal for human health and food production. Around 30% of the world’s population and 13% of land area is currently exposed to climatic conditions of extreme heat (29°C+) and humidity exceeding a deadly threshold for at least 20 days a year.

By 2100, these percentages are projected to increase to between 48%, with drastic reductions of greenhouse gases, and 74% of world population and 47% of the land area, if emissions grow (Nature Climate Change, 2017). Even limiting to the Paris Agreement levels, nearly 50% of the human population will be impacted, largely focused between the tropics. At +3°C global warming, 30% of the world’s population would live in extreme heat all the time.

Within 50 years, areas currently home to a third of the world’s population will be as hot as the hottest parts of the Sahara. Even in the most optimistic outlook, 1.2 billion people will fall outside the comfortable “climate niche” in which humans have thrived for at least 6,000 years, and live in insufferable heat.

Disasters: Increasingly, people are dying in geo-physical natural disasters (UNDP). Smaller-scale disasters with less than 100 deaths also show a statistically significant trend of increasing mortality. Disaster mortality reflects not only exposure to hazards, but also a confluence of other vulnerability factors, underlying risks responsible for most morbidity: poor urban management, environmental degradation, lack of disaster preparedness, poverty and inequality, affecting low-income households, communities, small businesses and food security disproportionally. An increased focus on disaster risk reduction is a prudent investment for saving lives, eg. using The Sendai Framework.

Disease: World Health Organisation and DARA International (an independent non-profit organisation committed to improving the quality and effectiveness of humanitarian action for vulnerable populations affected by armed conflict and natural disasters) research shows that the biggest killer from climate breakdown is the increased spread of disease in a 1°C warmer world. DARA says that by far the most vulnerable group are infants under the age of 1 year. Every year even now, on average climate change causes 400,000 deaths, mainly due to hunger and communicable diseases that affect above all children in developing countries. Disease means more spread and suffering before death.

Even frozen diseases will potentially emerge from ice humans have never been exposed to before, our immune systems woefully unprepared to deal with “prehistoric plagues” (Huffington Post).

Conflict: Warmer temperatures will also bring about more wars. Forced human migration is already at unprecedented levels due to social unrest and economic upheaval. By 2050, 1.2 billion people living in 31 countries that are not sufficiently resilient to withstand ecological threats may be displaced. 19 countries facing the highest number of threats, including water and food shortages and greater exposure to natural disasters, are among the world’s 40 least peaceful countries, (IEP, 2020).

By 2100, up to 2 billion coastal residents could be forced from their homes inland, with fewer places to go, creating a refugee crisis among one-fifth of the world’s population, all the while growing hungrier, thirstier, and more irritable with the heat. Every half-degree of warming will lead to a 10 to 20% increase in the chance of armed conflict. Regional climate impacts jeopardize global security. And if climate refugees flock to cities, increasing urban sprawl into land once used to farm food, cities could lose the ability to feed their inflated populations.

Ecological threats pose serious challenges to global peace. 141 countries face at least one ecological threat by 2050, with sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa the regions facing the largest number (IEP, 2020).

Climate change is as much a social issue as it is environmental.

Malawi RSC Water project Ntchis

Malawi RSC Water project Ntchis

Climate change’s widespread, unprecedented effects disproportionately burden the most poor and vulnerable, such as those in agriculture employment, poverty, lack of adaptation opportunity, migration, and disease affecting the most marginalised groups, children, women and the elderly.

  • Learn about climate change in Malawi. Designed to follow Future Earth’s model of sustainable development, RSC’s Global Development Workshops cover Environment and the interaction with health, education, water and sanitation, and sustainable practices.

Climate Change is the world’s most feared security threat. Can we survive as a species?

What is the future?

Climate model projections summarized in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (2014) indicate the 21st century global surface temperature is likely to rise between 0.3°C to 1.7°C (lower estimate) and 2.6°C to 4.8°C (upper estimate).  This data is recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations and undisputed by any scientific body of national or international standing.

(c) Nature - Carbon Crunch - global carbon project data

The planet can probably only emit about 600 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere before temperatures rise beyond 1.5°C (current target) to 2°C.

Mission 2020 predicted the world had until 2020 for emissions to begin the fall to avoid the worst effects of climate change and keep the planet from warming beyond the safe limit of 2°C, the level agreed by the international community.

In fact, there is only a 5% chance that Earth will stay under 2°C and may even surpass 3°C this century—with some areas of the world expected to warm even more.

How can we change climate change?

There are 3 main strategies to be pursued

1. Mitigation, to reduce the magnitude or rate of climate change, by

-    Reducing sources of greenhouse gas emissions, such as phasing out fossil fuels, replacing with more efficient and renewable low carbon energy sources, and changing the way we produce food and manage land.
-    Enhancing the sinks that accumulate and store gases: oceans, peat bogs and forests, removing carbon from the atmosphere, enabling it to stabilise to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change and not threaten food production and enable sustainable development.

Masaai wilderness conservation trust Chyulu Hills REDD+ Carbon Project

Masaai wilderness conservation trust Chyulu Hills REDD+ Carbon Project

  • Go to Campi ya Kanzi in Kenya, see and support The first REDD+ Carbon Project for Maasai communities: a UN climate change mitigation strategy through biodiversity and active forest / deforestation / degradation protection and alternative livelihoods for local communities. It’s a 30 year project between 9 organisation partnerships under the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) and Climate, Community and Biodiversity (CCB) standards, protecting 410,533 hectares which can prevent 37 million tonnes of CO2 emissions. The first carbon credits sale was to Tiffany&Co in 2017.

However, even with significant mitigation, due to climate inertia lag, even the most effective reductions in emissions would not prevent further climate change impacts, so adaptation is unavoidable (Klein et al., 2007).

2. Adaptation to climate change effects seeks to reduce the vulnerability of social and biological systems to relatively sudden change and thus offset the effects of global warming. The adaptation challenge grows with the magnitude and the rate of climate change (Wikipedia).

With the climate inertia lag, adaptation will be required even if emissions are under control. The 2020 UN Environment Adaptation report highlights how few countries’ plans and investment are adequate for the rising threat, especially faced with Covid pandemic priorities:

“We are not saying we can adapt our way out of climate change, but the impacts of failing to invest in adaptation to climate change will be very severe, and it is the poorest in wealthy countries and the poorest in the world who will pay the highest price, and who are most exposed to these impacts.” - Inger Andersen, Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme.

Adaptation is especially important in developing countries, which are predicted to bear the brunt of the developed world’s greater emissions and global warming effects, but they generally have less capacity to adapt. Capacity to adapt is linked strongly to social and economic development (IPCC, 2007), the cost of it likely to be billions of dollars per year for decades. Donor countries promised an annual $100 billion by 2020 through the Green Climate Fund to help developing countries adapt but pledges not hugely forthcoming. Technology, education, infrastructure, access to resources and management is required, along with acceptance of climate change’s existence, the consequent need for sociopolitical will and action.

Adaption measures include resilient technologies and materials such as for flooding, heat tolerance, rainwater storage, green roofs, raising street levels and building differently, even relocating populations as has been seen with some small island states. Nature-based solutions should be prioritised, as among the most cost-effective, can reduce greenhouse gases and can support Covid recovery with jobs too: planting trees to act as carbon sinks and natural flood barriers; restoring mangrove swamps as buffers against coastal storms and sea level rises; halting the destruction of coral reefs; re-wetting bogs and wetlands; and allowing areas of degraded land to regenerate naturally.

Adaptation may be spontaneous, without government intervention, or indeed carefully planned, in anticipation of or reaction to climate change:

  • The Caribbean island of Dominica had a high vulnerability to weather and climate related disasters impacting livelihoods, destroying infrastructure and disrupting the provision of essential services. After Hurricane Maria in September 2017, which destroyed 90% of the island, citing research by the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO), United Nations (UN) Secretary-General António Guterres said natural disasters had tripled, while the economic damaged caused by them has increased five-fold,

“There is scientific proof that climate change is largely responsible for the dramatic increase in the intensity and devastation caused by the hurricanes in the Caribbean and by many other phenomena around the world”

Dominica now has a vision to become the first climate-resilient nation. Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit said,

Our devastation is so complete that our recovery has to be total. And so we have a unique opportunity to be an example to the world, an example of how an entire nation rebounds from disaster and how an entire nation can be climate resilient for the future.

Some have suggested that activities that enhance adaptive capacity are essentially equivalent to activities that promote sustainable development: Reducing poverty, reducing inequities, and gender inequality, improving education, infrastructure, access to and efficient utilisation of resources, indigenous practices and increased agency by local people. (Smit et al. 2001, ODI)

3.    Climate engineering (or geoengineering or climate intervention) is the deliberate large-scale intervention of the climate system, such as through solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal, but has so far been shown to be ineffective or could have potentially severe side effects.

Climate Change International Cooperation: IPCC, UNFCC, Kyoto & Paris Agreements

In 2014, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change determined climate change mitigation a case of the 'Tragedy of the commons' – it would not be achieved if responsibility were left to individual (people, institution or countries) actions, inherently independent in their own selfish interests - suggesting the need for committed collective action.

In existence from 1992 was the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), an international environmental treaty signed at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, and ratified by a sufficient number of countries to enter into force in 1994. Its objective to "stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" based on the scientific consensus that global warming is occurring and extremely likely that human-made CO2 emissions have predominantly caused it.

The framework sets forth non-binding limits on greenhouse gas emissions for individual countries. It contains no enforcement mechanisms, rather outlines how specific international treaties ("protocols") may be negotiated to specify further action towards the objective.

The Kyoto Protocol extended the UNFCCC, adopted in 1997 and entered into force in 2005, with 192 countries. The Protocol's first commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012. A second phase was agreed on in 2012, known as the ‘Doha Amendment’ to the protocol, in which 36 (industrialised) countries had binding targets, the commitment period ending 2020.

Negotiations in the annual Conference of the Parties (COP) led to the 2015 adoption at COP21 by consensus of the Paris Agreement (or ‘Paris Climate Accord’), whose commitments started in 2020.

In the Paris Agreement, each country determines, plans and regularly reports its own contribution to mitigate global warming. All parties were required to submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by 2020 and every 5 years thereafter, with more ambitious targets.

Under President Trump, the USA filed its intent to withdraw at the earliest possible date, on November 4, 2019. After a one-year period, on 4 November, 2020, the U.S. formally withdrew from the Agreement, coincidentally the day following the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Biden won, signing an executive order to rejoin the Agreement on 20 January, 2021, his first day in office; the US rejoined on 19 February, 2021.

Emissions Trading

A common method countries utilize to meet their obligations is emissions trading. A number of Emissions Trading Schemes (ETS) have been, or are planned to be, implemented around the world, the bulk currently constituting carbon emissions trading. A country with more emissions can purchase the right to emit more and the country with less emission can trade their right to emit to other countries. But greater emitters do not bear the full brunt of their emissions’ cost: external costs affect the welfare of others, people in the future, and the natural environment worldwide, and the fairness and value of that is unclear.

In Europe, The EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the European Union's climate change policy tool, to help industries cut their CO2 emissions in a cost-effective way. Launched in 2005, it was the first large greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme in the world, and the largest. It covers around 10,000 power and manufacturing installations in all EU member states plus Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein, covering about 40% EU greenhouse gas emissions. In 2008, the installations regulated by the EU ETS were collectively responsible for close to half of the EU's anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and 40% of its total greenhouse gas emissions. In 2021 post-Brexit, UK businesses subject to the new UK Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS), of the same scope as the EU ETS.

Under the 'cap and trade' principle, a maximum (cap) is set on the total amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted by installations. "Allowances" for emissions are then auctioned off or allocated for free, and can subsequently be traded: Installations must monitor and report their CO2 emissions, ensuring they hand in enough allowances to the authorities to cover their emissions, able to buy them from others. If emission exceeds what is permitted by its allowances, an installation is heavily fined. Conversely, if an installation has performed well at reducing its emissions, it can sell its leftover credits. The limited number means they hold a value, and the cap is reduced over time. This enables the system to find the most cost-effective ways of reducing emissions without significant government intervention. Compared to 2005, when the EU ETS was first implemented, the proposed caps for 2020 represents a 21% reduction of greenhouse gases. 

In 2012, the EU ETS was also extended to the airline industry, though this only applies within the EEA, as objections would not allow the EU to regulate emissions outside the EU. Under the EU ETS, all airlines operating in Europe, European and non-European alike, are required to monitor, report and verify their intra-EEA emissions, and to surrender allowances against those emissions. They receive tradeable allowances covering a certain level of emissions from their flights per year.

What has climate change got to do with tourism?

For tourism, climate change is not a remote event. Climate and tourism are inextricably linked. Whether it's the snow required for wintersports or warmth desired on a Caribbean island, weather and its impact on an environment and sense of place are often key to visitors' destination choices, experiences and spending. As such, tourism is key to a destination's future, as often its most viable and sustainable economic development option, and a countries' main source of foreign exchange earnings, especially vital for many of the world's poverty-stricken Least Developed Countries.

Climate change impacts such as retreating glaciers, desertification, rising sea levels, deforestation, biodiversity decline, water shortages and infectious diseases hurt a tourism economy.

Changing destination demand patterns will significantly affect host countries’ communities, and other linked sectors, such as food, culture, construction and handicrafts, affecting employment and poverty levels. (UNWTO)

Yet tourism also contributes to greenhouse gases, global warming and climate change. So it is in the sector’s own interest to play a leading role in the global response. So how can tourism and climate change co-exist and for mutual benefits?

In future decades, while demand may switch away from over-heating southerly destinations to more northern temperate zones, to actually reduce climate change, tourism and tourists need to mitigate and reduce the carbon greenhouse gas emissions and effects of tourism growth. Responsible businesses who acknowledge and genuinely address these issues facilitate opportunity to mitigate and reduce carbon footprints.

How much does tourism contribute to climate change?

Tourism as a whole was thought to contribute around 5-6% of global greenhouse gas emissions; three quarters (4% total) from transport, including 40% (2.5% total) from aviation, and 32% (1.5% total) from cars; 21% (1% total) from accommodation, the rest from activities (UNWTO-UNEP-WMO, 2008).

In 2018 however, a new study on The Carbon Footprint of Global Tourism said that global tourism accounts for 8% of carbon emissions, a higher figure as it analysed the energy needed to support the tourism system, including all food, beverage, infrastructure, construction and maintenance as well as retail services that tourists enjoy such as in hotels, shopping and souvenirs. However it does not include (still unknown) non-CO2 effects from aviation, nor that growth in tourism is outpacing world economy so increasing its percentage of emissions.

Regarding aviation on its own, the IPCC has estimated it is responsible for around 3.5% of human-created climate change; the EU has estimated 3% within Europe and 2% globally, and the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has estimated 2%. But, as a developed island nation, the UK figure is as high as 7.3% (Gatwick Airport, 2021)

The USA, prior to Trump opting out of the Paris Climate Agreement, was responsible for nearly half of worldwide CO2 aircraft emissions alone (Center for Biological Diversity, 2016).

The IPCC report found increases were driven by visitors from affluent countries who travel to other wealthy destinations. In leading countries such as US, China, Germany and India, much travel is domestic; where as travellers from Canada, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Denmark exert a much higher carbon footprint elsewhere than in their own countries. Richer people tend to spend more on higher carbon transportation, food and pursuits: when people earn more than $40,000 per annum, their carbon footprint from tourism increases 13% for every 10% rise in income. People from low income countries spend more on public transport and unprocessed food.

There are many other aspects to also address, such as international trade aviation, for imports and exports of food, or shipping. Of the possible actions people can take to help tackle climate change, the most effective measured by tonnes of CO2 per year were:

how to reduce your personal contribution to climate change

•    58.6: Having one fewer child
•    2.40: Live car free
•    1.60: Avoid one round-trip transatlantic flight
•    1.47: Buy green energy
•    1.15: Switch electric car to car free
•    0.82: Eat a plant-based diet
•    0.52: Replace typical car with hybrid
•    0.25: Wash clothes in cold water
•    0.21: Hang-dry clothes
•    0.21: Recycle
•    0.10: Upgrade light bulbs

Another study has shown agriculture is a significant driver of global warming and causes 15% of all emissions, half of which are from livestock. Beef uses 28 times more land, 11 times water and results in five times more climate-warming emissions than for pork or chicken. Giving up beef can even reduce a carbon footprint more than cars can.

The October 2018 IPCC report noted that while there must be rapid and significant changes in four big global systems - energy supply, land use, cities and industry - the world cannot meet its target without changes by individuals to lifestyles, urging people to:

  • Buy less meat, milk, cheese and butter and more locally sourced seasonal food - and throw less of it away.

  • Drive electric cars but walk or cycle short distances.

  • Take trains & buses instead of planes.

  • Use videoconferencing instead of business travel.

  • Use a washing line instead of a tumble dryer.

  • Insulate homes.

  • Demand low carbon in every consumer product.

Behavioral shifts could be faster than waiting for national climate policies and widespread energy and land transformations.

A leaked draft report on climate change and land use being debated by the IPCC (August 2019) states that it will be impossible to keep global temperatures at safe levels unless there is a transformation in the way the world produces food and manages land, as agriculture, forestry and other land use produces almost a quarter of greenhouse gas emissions; half all methane emissions come from cattle and rice fields, while deforestation and the removal of peat lands cause further significant levels of carbon emissions.

Responsible aviation?

We’re often asked, “How can you have sustainable tourism if you have to fly to destinations?”

Practically, there is no perfect sustainable tourism Utopia. There is tourism which is more or less sustainable, and responsible tourism which is a journey of improvement, taking responsibility for more sustainable tourism.

There’s no denying putting a halt to global leisure aviation could reduce the carbon footprint of tourism. However, that would also cut off a life line to many countries for whom tourism is vital as a top export, for economy, employment, communities and conservation.

Plus, pragmatically, people are always going to want to fly and travel. Air travel is set to double every 12.5 years. The demand is there, many would find a way regardless of, for example, additional taxes, even though they may want to reduce their carbon footprint of travel.

The number of international travellers is expected to increase to nearly 1.8 billion by 2025 (WTTC), adding to travel’s percentage of carbon emissions. Additionally, burning fuel at altitude may have a multiplier effect: Aviation’s 2-3% of global carbon emissions may cause nearly 5% of man-made global warming, with other greenhouse gases and a stronger warming effect than at ground level.

Aviation's rapid growth and contribution to global emissions could put it on track to consume 25% of the world’s carbon budget by 2050. In that same time frame, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) by contrast are targeting a reduction of 50% in net aviation CO2 emissions, relative to 2005 levels.

Corsia

In October 2016, aviation became the first global industry to limit its carbon footprint as the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) approved a UN plan known as The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation, or CORSIA. CORSIA offsets carbon emissions growth from international flights, limiting emissions to 2019 levels from 2021 (the base year adjusted from 2019-20 average given 2020 pandemic lockdowns), plugging a hole in the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Climate deal that missed out aviation. Countries who barely have aviation even opted in, such is the urgency in the name of the victims of climate change, such as The Marshall Islands and other small island developing states.

We’re proud aviation is taking the lead, but it’s only 2 percent. What about the other 98 percent? What about maritime and road transport, which are bigger? If they don’t carry on, what’s the point of arguing over 2 percent?” said Joseph Niel, director of the Civil Aviation Authority of Vanuatu at the October 2016 United Nations aviation meeting in Montreal.

However, called the "global market-based measure" (GMBM), CORSIA does not apply to domestic aviation (although EU ETS covers that in Europe), does not cover non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, and is not based on emission reductions but on offsets for emissions increases, aiming for "carbon neutral growth": Carbon emissions from aviation are meant to hold steady starting 2021, even as passenger air travel increases.

Established in 2010, this carbon neutral growth target is already outdated by countries’ separate Nationally Determined Contributions agreed by the 2016 Paris Agreement: international aviation needs to be included in the NDCs, and that without being hindered, “more concerned nations and communities may take more ambitious mitigation action while not being held back by deniers and rearguards. Leaders must be allowed to lead” (Chris Lyle, Air Transport Economics, GreenAirOnline)

It’s worth noting a 2016 EU study found 85% of offsetting schemes didn't work, 73% of the potential 2013-2020 schemes had low likelihood and only 2% of projects and 7% of potential projects had likelihood of ensuring emission reductions.

Research shows even with advanced technology and 100% biofuel replacement of jet fuel (for which the time and policy change required is enormous), if it does meet its ‘carbon neutral growth’ target, not reduction of emissions, at a time when other industries’ decarbonisation is decreasing their share, aviation will consume 12% of the global carbon budget for 1.5°C by 2050, up to 27% if it does not.

In other words, possible mitigation measures are at best inadequate, especially for Paris Agreement time lines: a complete paradigm shift is required. At present, technological innovation is delivering a 1% per annum saving in carbon efficiency, but this is completely outstripped by the industry growing at 4-5% a year (pre-Covid) (The Guardian, 2019)

Plus, it is countries that opt in to Corsia, obliging their internationally-flying airlines to do so, and treating international aviation in silo. It does not cover domestic airlines globally, which along with airport-related emissions fall under other UNFCCC commitments, and creates an overlap in Europe - so far it’s unclear how international airlines will co-exist under both EU/UK Emissions Trading Schemes and Corsia.

Corsia will also remain voluntary for the first several years post-adoption, only becomes mandatory from 2027, and can be opted out of within 6 months. Voluntary means there will always be the likes of Ryannair, now a top 10 carbon emitters in Europe - a league previously exclusively occupied by coal plants (Transport & Environment, 2019). All this means likely effectiveness of Corsia is questionable.

Additional market-based (eg. taxation) and demand management (eg. rationing) measures will be necessary if aviation is to make its fair contribution to the 2°C and 1.5°C targets, giving more responsibility and emissions ownership to the consumer. While aviation is currently a small percentage of total global GHGs, in terms of individuals’ consumption, it is a large percentage of personal carbon footprints.

Market measures would raise consciousness of flight emissions and awareness for future potential carbon budgeting and trading, with global emissions burden being paid by orginating countries’ frequent travellers, rather than lesser developed countries unfairly, based on exact pro-rata emissions by flight (dependent on route, time, carbon efficiency of plane, configuration, class, etc). We may see in future personal ‘carbon wallet’ accounts linked to passport to measure, manage and pay for personal emissions. But it relies on a globally fair system - and price rises and decrease in passenger numbers in the West may be outstripped by rising demand in developing economies such as India and China, still resulting in greater numbers flying, and greater challenge to meet carbon targets.

The Future for Aviation?

With the COP events and the world reeling from Covid, it’s certainly time for effective action to remove greenhouse gas emissions from aviation.

New near-zero-carbon electrofuels can be produced and deployed now using existing engines and infrastructure. Electrofuels are produced by combining hydrogen with carbon dioxide, but to do this sustainably the hydrogen must be produced using renewable electricity and the CO2 captured directly from the air. Synthetic fuels are significantly more expensive than aviation kerosene, which is tax free. It would see the cost of a plane ticket increase by 58% if kerosene remains untaxed, or 23% with a proper carbon price levied on kerosene at €150 per tonne (Transport & Environment, 2018).

In the meantime, airlines such as Virgin Atlantic are studying behavioural economics to increase pilots awareness of the measures they could take to improve fuel efficiency.

Wright Electric are working with EasyJet and other airlines to develop battery-powered electric planes which could be used for short haul flights of under two hours' duration to reduce impact on the planet that could be commercially operational within a decade. They see every short-haul flight could be battery-powered and emissions-free within the next 20 years, with aviation electricity coming from solar sources or wind power.

We’re more keen than most to see the carbon emissions reality improve with research and development. However, it sometimes seems aviation emissions are used as an excuse to avoid learning more about responsible tourism as a whole. By denying more sustainable tourism exists overall, it challenges us less, so we don’t have to change and improve our behaviour. Realistically, we need to demand better and push the industry to develop.

What else can tourism do about climate change?

Flights aren’t the only thing which creates carbon emissions on trips: accommodations, tours, activities and other transport options do too, which may occur whether you’re on a trip away or at home. Likewise, impacts of tourism aren’t just environmental or negative.

Vitally, the least developed countries in the world are highly dependent on tourism, accounting for over 45% world tourism arrivals and more than 35% of international tourism receipts. (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2013). Tourism is often in their top 3 sectors and exports, representing around 40% of GDP and jobs.

To take away tourism from those countries, who need it most, could literally cut their life-line. Those are people and places that Earth Changers are here to support with positive impact tourism.

By lowering energy consumption and shifting to renewable energy sources, especially in transport and accommodation, tourism can help tackle climate change. (UNWTO)

“The technology exists today to fully decarbonise the [hotel] sector” says ITP Director Fran Hughes, whose Hotel Global Decarbonisation Report shows that hotels need to reduce their absolute carbon emissions – by ‘significant but achievable’ 66% by 2030 and by 90% by 2050, against a 2010 baseline, to fully play their part in mitigating global warming.

2016 saw the first 100% solar-powered five-star resort open in the Maldives. (Finolhu Villas)
In July 2017, France – the country with the largest volume of tourism arrivals – announced a five-year plan to ban all petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040 as part of the Paris Agreement. The Environment Minister also stated that France would no longer use coal to produce electricity after 2022 and that up to €4bn will be invested in boosting energy efficiency.

Like other sectors, tourism's SDG #13 climate change action targets include:

  • Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.

  • Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.

  • Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early warning.

  • Implement the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change commitment undertaken by developed-country parties to jointly mobilize $100 billion annually by 2020 for the Green Climate Fund to address the needs of developing countries for mitigation.

  • Promote mechanisms for raising capacity for effective climate change-related planning and management in least developed countries and Small Island Developing States, including focusing on women, youth and local and marginalized communities.

Earth Changers absolutely supports measuring and monitoring as a way to reduce our consumption and emissions, highlighting in our ‘Places’, the green standards and accreditation schemes which help those business and individuals to work towards their goals.

Links with the other Sustainable Development Goals

A huge challenge within the SDGs for tourism is that placing emphasis on Goals 8, 12 and 14, in which tourism is featured (UNWTO, 2016), will endanger positive contribution to Goal 13.

Goal 1 - End Poverty: The most poor are the most vulnerable to climate change and disproportionately burdened.

Goal 2 - Zero hunger: Climate change threatens land, agriculture, food production, prices and security.

Goal 3 - Health & Well-Being: Food insecurity leads to malnutrition,  disease and high mortality.

Goal 4 - Quality education:  Greater awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change will help address it.

Goal 5 - Gender Equality: Women are among the more marginalised groups who are most vulnerable to climate change effects.

Goal 6 - Clean water and sanitation: Extreme weather can affect access, and lead to water shortages and infectious diseases.

Goal 7 - Affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy is required to phase out and replace carbon-creating fossil fuels.

Goal 8 - Economic growth & productive employment: "carbon neutral growth" is required to address both livelihoods and climate concerns.

Goal 9 - Sustainable infrastructure, industrialization and innovation is required to adapt to climate change.

Goal 10 - Greater global equality is required to balance impacts of climate change and adaptive capacity for sustainable development.

Goal 11 - Sustainable cities: Climate change will mean parts of the Earth may become inhospitable, affecting rural living and migration.

Goal 12 - Sustainable Consumption & Production - Less over-consumption and sustainable production can help reduce emissions.

Goal 14 - Marine conservation - warmer waters affects coral bleaching, marine ecosystems, species, coastal areas and communities.

Goal 15 - Life on Land - Safeguarding the planet's biodiversity, forests and agricultural land is key to climate mitigation and carbon sinks.

Goal 16 - Peace and Justice - Climate justice is ethical, political and social, not just environmental or physical; those who suffer climate change impacts the most are the least responsible, highlighting issues of (in)equity, human and collective rights and responsibilities.

 Goal 17 - Partnerships - Climate change is the biggest threat to the world, requiring a collaborative approach to international solution.